Representative Jamaal Bowman’s upset win in a 2020 Democratic primary in the New York suburbs was heralded by the left as proof of its electoral ascent in American politics.
Four years later, Mr. Bowman’s decisive loss on Tuesday will soon brand him with a more ignominious distinction: the first member of the House’s left-leaning “Squad” to be ousted from office.
The congressman was weighed down by a unique collection of baggage, including a guilty plea to a misdemeanor for pulling a House fire alarm last year. And he faced record-shattering spending by political groups furious over his criticism of Israel.
But his defeat in one of the nation’s most closely watched primaries drove home an unmistakable reality: Even at a moment when the war in Gaza has re-energized progressive activism, many of the left’s candidates are no longer gaining ground in major races, and in some cases they have started losing it.
In party primaries and special elections from New Jersey to Oregon and New York, moderates seemed to be regaining their footing, often by explicitly positioning themselves to the right of their Democratic opponents on immigration, foreign policy and public safety. President Biden has also tacked rightward on key issues like immigration.
And in Missouri, another member of the “Squad,” Representative Cori Bush, is in danger of losing an August primary, where many of the same outside forces that helped defeat Mr. Bowman are already at play.
“The voters in this district, and in other districts across the country, frankly, are just not buying some of the things that these candidates are selling,” said Jay Jacobs, New York’s Democratic Party chair, who has often been at war with his party’s left wing. “And now, moderate voters are getting engaged, they’re paying attention, and they’re coming to the polls.”
The outcome left progressives on the defensive on Wednesday, with longtime allies at odds over who was to blame and how — if at all — their movement needed to change its message and confrontational style.
Other Democratic moderates in New York also were victorious on Tuesday, including John Avlon — whose political background included a stint as a speechwriter and adviser to Rudolph W. Giuliani — who won a House primary in eastern Long Island. But Mr. Bowman’s loss to the Westchester County executive, George Latimer, was particularly telling.
Mr. Bowman made little effort to expand his base of support and put the war in Gaza at the center of his campaign, betting that he could win by energizing a similar coalition of Black and brown voters, young people and committed progressives.
National progressives had made the race a crucial electoral priority. Groups from Justice Democrats to the Sunrise Movement, once the insurgents at the gate, drained bank accounts and dispatched armies of volunteers. Some of the left’s biggest names, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, spent quality time in the district.
In the end, they could not compete with the other side’s vast resources, including a torrent of unprecedented spending by a super PAC tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The group attacked the two-term congressman over his criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza but also the vote he and other members of the “Squad” took against Mr. Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure plan.
There were also signs that Mr. Bowman had also lost the support of a swath of traditional liberal voters who once eagerly embraced him as a young Black political newcomer and committed democratic socialist.
At the Scarsdale Public Library, Christa Mruz, 53, said she voted for Mr. Bowman in 2020, but decided to vote for Mr. Latimer because he had demonstrated an ability to deliver on local issues.
“He’s done great for Westchester, and he’ll continue to do so on a higher level,” she said. “We need more people who will work together instead of being separate for their own agendas.”
The race was a role reversal from 2020, when Mr. Bowman unseated an established incumbent, Eliot L. Engel. This time around, Mr. Latimer was the challenger, yet seemed to assume the role of the more seasoned politician. He benefited from name recognition and deep ties to the 16th Congressional District, largely made up of Westchester County suburbs just north of New York City. He currently serves as the Westchester County executive, with previous stints in the State Legislature.
Alyssa Cass, a political consultant who worked on Mr. Bowman’s winning campaign against Mr. Engel, said the congressman appeared to have forgotten what got him and other progressives elected in the first place.
Back then, Mr. Bowman had passionately argued that Mr. Engel, a Washington habitué who was the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, did not understand “our community” and was an absentee representative.
“Bowman beat a 30-year incumbent by arguing that that incumbent was too focused on foreign policy and not on the needs of the district,” Ms. Cass said. “Fast forward to 2024: For voters, you can see how they might feel that ‘He’s fighting for me’ has been transformed into ‘He’s fighting for something else.’”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, argued that progressive economic positions on taxing the wealthy or fighting corporations remained popular. Mr. Bowman did not.
“Sadly, he opened up a unique set of Achilles’ heels that made him easy pickings for right-wing billionaires to single him out and basically buy a Democratic primary,” he said.
Mr. Bowman had trouble moving past his clumsy and sometimes inflammatory comments about Oct. 7, including casting doubt that Hamas committed sexual violence, a position he later disavowed. And, of course, the fire alarm.
But Mr. Bowman’s closest allies forcefully pushed back. The problem, they argued, was not their candidate’s messaging but how it was drowned out by a huge influx of spending by AIPAC and affiliated groups.
“Jamaal Bowman is a model, not a warning, for what political leadership can look like,” said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesman for Justice Democrats.
Mr. Andrabi blasted Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the House Democratic leader, for not doing more to help Mr. Bowman. Mr. Jeffries, who has a policy of backing incumbents, endorsed Mr. Bowman and recorded a robocall, even though his own views on Israel and other issues are more moderate. But he did not campaign in the district.
“The outcome of this election is a reflection on his leadership and whether Hakeem Jeffries stood up to Republican megadonors,” Mr. Andrabi said.
Mr. Jeffries was having none of it. His spokeswoman, Christie Stephenson, said the leader would be judged on whether Democrats take control of the House this fall.
“The so-called Justice Democrats stated back in 2017 that their goal was to destroy the Democratic Party, and they laughably threatened to primary Hakeem Jeffries,” she said. “They have failed miserably in every way. Is anyone surprised?”
Whether the primary success for moderates like Mr. Latimer can be replicated in other races against other progressive stars is unclear. Ms. Bush, of Missouri, who also defeated an establishment incumbent, William Lacy Clay Jr., in a primary in 2020, faces a stiff challenge from Wesley Bell, the prosecuting attorney in St. Louis County, who has been endorsed by AIPAC.
In late January, Ms. Bush and another “Squad” member — Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, the House’s only Palestinian American, were the sole “no” votes on a resolution to bar Hamas members and others involved in the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel from coming to the United States.
Josh Gottheimer, the New Jersey Democrat who has sometimes staked out more conservative positions, seemed confident that the results on Tuesday meant that “the Squad politics are on the way out, not the way in,” noting successes for party centrists in Oregon and New Jersey.
“There’s a swing from extremism to a more common-sense Democratic lane,” he said.
Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic political consultant, said that Mr. Bowman had made himself “irrelevant and ridiculous” with some of his votes and behavior.
But he also suggested that moderates would be well advised not to view his loss as a major setback for progressives who have proven that they can win races.
“The Democratic Socialists and the Justice Democrats are not a passing fancy: They know how to organize,” he said. “And what this failure will do is get them to to increase their organizing skills. And it will increase their performance.”
Molly Longman contributed reporting.