Let’s start with some good news: I can only improve from here … right?
Last year I did this exercise of picking five teams that would exceed expectations and, well, let’s just say my picks did not exceed expectations. The Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets had four of the NBA’s seven worst records. All at once now: Yiiiikes. Only the Houston Rockets salvaged my effort.
The backstory: I made some tweaks to my prediction model last year that I thought would improve and simplify it. I accomplished the second goal but emphatically failed on the first. Yes, the model was simpler, which is generally a good thing, but unfortunately, it was also dumber and missed on some important but subtle things that mattered. Most of the teams I whiffed on, for instance, were shaky in secondary depth after their top seven players; some of my playing time estimates were also far too simplistic, in ways that tweaked the model away from reality.
Maybe some of those misses would have happened anyway — Memphis, in particular, seemed undervalued before the Grizzlies were hammered by injuries. But I’ve reinstated the methodology I’d used before last season and added one or two small tweaks. A year older and wiser, we’ll try this again.
With that introduction, for this article, I’m using BetMGM over-under totals for NBA wins for the coming season as a proxy for what the median “expectation” is for each team. In no case did those over-unders differ significantly from other sportsbooks.
Here are the five teams I think are most likely to exceed expectations. Apologies in advance to these five teams for cursing them.
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Of all the projections I’ve seen, taking the over on Cleveland seems like the most obvious one on the board. The Cavs had the league’s second-best net margin in 2022-23, and in 2023-24, they won 48 games despite myriad injuries. Their four best players missed a combined 87 games; all are in their 20s and should expect to be more available this season. Additionally, Darius Garland seems strongly likely to have a much better year after a broken jaw derailed his production even when playing last season.
The Cavs had no key losses from last year’s squad, with the top 10 players in minutes all returning. They also are one of the few playoff teams that can plausibly say they can get contributions from a rookie (20th pick Jaylon Tyson looked good in summer league).
Why might I be wrong? A coaching change from J.B. Bickerstaff to Kenny Atkinson represents a source of uncertainty, and nitpickers will note there isn’t much draft equity on hand to make in-season upgrades. The luxury tax line also will constrain them.
If you want to say this team might falter again in the playoffs, I have an easier time with that. The Cavs don’t exactly scream postseason ceiling. But that isn’t today’s discussion topic; we’re talking about piling up regular-season wins. Getting to 48 in the Eastern Conference seems like an extremely attainable number for a squad that did this the past two seasons. In fact, you can make a strong case this might be the best Cavaliers team of the post-LeBron James generation.
The Suns were my lone successful “under” pick from last season, but this time around, I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.
Yes, it’s easy to be pessimistic about the Suns’ future after they traded every draft pick that wasn’t nailed down to go all-in on an old team without a top-five player in the league. It is much harder, however, to be pessimistic about the Suns’ present. Phoenix won 49 games last year despite getting just 53 games from Bradley Beal and having neither a point guard nor a bench. While there is some age risk with Kevin Durant being 36 and Beal 31, the other indicators for this team mostly point northward.
The play of Durant and Devin Booker in the Olympics was one positive sign that they can still bring it at a high level, but it’s the rest of the roster where the real gains were made. Phoenix filled its glaring void at point guard by somehow netting Tyus Jones on a minimum deal and fortified behind him with Monte Morris. The Suns also upgraded the backup center spot with Mason Plumlee after Drew Eubanks underwhelmed a year ago and will have a full season of 3-and-D wing Royce O’Neale in the wing rotation. While it’s true the lack of draft equity and the collective bargaining agreement’s second apron will combine to make in-season additions virtually impossible, the current roster looks pretty good.
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On the sideline, the departed Frank Vogel was a good coach, but Mike Budenholzer’s track record is exceptional when it becomes to boosting a team’s regular-season win total. In the playoffs … maybe not so much. But again, that’s not the assignment today. Even in a packed Western Conference with perhaps a dozen playoff-caliber teams, I like the Suns to beat 47 wins with room to spare.
Setting an over-under is harder at the poles; one bad injury (or, for a bad team, one unlikely success), and you’re immediately pulled back toward the middle. Even for teams that look great on paper, a lot of things need to go right to win two-thirds or more of their games.
Nonetheless, pegging the Thunder to exceed 56.5 wins doesn’t seem like a huge pull when they won 57 last year with by far the league’s youngest playoff team, then followed it up with arguably the NBA’s best offseason.
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I’m not sure how high you’d have to set an over for the Thunder for me to get squeamish, but my answer is definitely “higher than this.” Unless Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slips on a banana peel, the Thunder have as plausible a pathway as any team to a 60-plus-win juggernaut.
The Thunder’s top eight players in minutes each were aged 25 or younger a season ago. They turned their biggest rotation liability (Josh Giddey) into ace defender Alex Caruso, and they upgraded their one glaring 2023-24 weakness (rebounding) by adding big man Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. No longer will the best offensive play against this team be “miss a free throw.”
The 2024-25 Thunder would be pretty solid favorites to win a series against the 2023-24 Thunder. And remember, they might not be done: The Thunder have more ability than any other team to make in-season additions or upgrades, as they’re still sitting on a trove of draft picks, have multiple tradable contacts for salary matching and are miles from the CBA’s first apron. Add it all up, and I’m surprised Vegas didn’t set the bar a little higher.
Trae Young directs his teammates during a game last season against the Nets. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)
Am I being a homer? Possibly. The Hawks only won 36 games a season ago, and they traded away the second-best player by sending Dejounte Murray to New Orleans. Yes, they won the draft lottery, but they did it in the wrong year. Top pick Zaccharie Risacher may eventually pay big dividends, but for now, he’s a role player who will mostly play off the ball. There won’t be any Victor Wembanyama-esque takeovers happening here.
On the other hand, look at Atlanta’s incentives this season. Already owing their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, the Hawks have no reason to tank, which already separates them from as many as six teams near the bottom of the East. Rising above that dross shouldn’t be challenging.
Even setting that part aside, when I see the Hawks, I see meh averageness, but I don’t see a bad enough team to lose 47 times in this conference. They upgraded their persistently leaky defense by adding Dyson Daniels and Risacher on the wings, might have a breakout second option in the criminally underrated Jalen Johnson and still have an elite offensive orchestrator in Trae Young and one of the league’s best sixth men in Bogdan Bogdanović.
They should be healthier too. Last season they lost Young for 27 games, Johnson for 25 and multiple secondary players for long stretches and still got to 36 wins. Between that and the upgrades on last year’s extremely shaky secondary depth (Larry Nance Jr., a healthy Kobe Bufkin and a full season of The Vít Krejčí Experience), Atlanta should be in better shape to weather the 82-game grind even if its injury luck doesn’t improve.
Additionally, the Hawks have some capability to do in-season roster upgrades with other team’s picks — one from the Sacramento Kings from the Kevin Huerter trade and two from the Murray trade. I’m not saying it should be Plan A, but it’s something to consider for a team with no tanking incentive when you’re evaluating whether it’ll lose 47 times.
Maybe that just means another trip to the Play-In, but for a team that has been as average as average gets the last three years, 35.5 wins isn’t that big a hurdle.
Do you know how bad you have to be to lose 58 games in the East?
Well, the Pistons do. (Rim shot.)
Seriously, the bar is now low enough in Detroit that even the Pistons should have little trouble skipping over it. While there is the depressing fact that the Pistons would not have cleared a 24.5-win over-under in any season since 2018-19 (I hear you, Detroit fans: “Hey, buddy, we pro-rated to 24.8 in the COVID year!”), new management under Trajan Langdon and a new coach in the previously mentioned Bickerstaff augurs more hopefully for the coming season.
Those two have a toe-high bar to clear to be considered upgrades in the wake of the disastrous Troy Weaver-Monty Williams tag team. In particular, some of the tragic spacing and baffling lineup decisions that plagued last season’s Pistons should go out the window with the coaching change, while the curious roster decisions of yore have been replaced by something more closely resembling an actual plan.
As with a few other teams I’ve mentioned, health should be a factor too. The Pistons low-key had enough injuries that only two players played more than 63 games last season. Usually that’s the one area in which a young, rebuilding team doesn’t have issues, but the 2023-24 Pistons were special.
Now the bad news: There still isn’t elite talent here. The front office, however, has assembled a more credible roster, with legit shooters around Cade Cunningham and centers who will actually be playing center. Even amid last season’s disaster, the numbers say the team was quasi-respectable (OK, “run-of-the-mill bad” as opposed to “historically bad”) as long as Los Tanque Comandantes Killian Hayes and James Wiseman weren’t on the floor.
Finally, look at this conference. With the Nets and Washington Wizards in full-on tank mode and teams such as the Hornets, Bulls and Raptors not exactly poised to take the league by storm, wins should be there for the taking. Plan the parade route, Detroit: This is the year the 25-win barrier goes down.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Getty; photos of Kevin Durant, Darius Garland and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: David Sherman, Adam Glanzman, Cooper Neill / NBAE via Getty Images)