What happens next if Biden drops out of the presidential race

President Joe Biden is under siege from within his own party, as more Democrats — in private and in public — urge him to end his reelection bid in the wake of his damaging debate against Donald Trump.

Biden’s efforts to shore up confidence in his candidacy have failed to close the growing rift between him and his party. And while he has so far roundly rejected the calls to step aside, Biden said Tuesday that should a “medical condition” emerge, it could force him to rethink his decision to stay in the race.

On Wednesday, Biden, 81, tested positive for Covid-19. His doctors say his symptoms are mild.

Realistically, the only way to replace Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket at this stage in the campaign cycle is if he agrees to drop out voluntarily, or if he dies or suffers a “disability.”

After breezing through the primary virtually unopposed, Biden has won almost all of his party’s 4,000-plus delegates, who are selected in large part because of their loyalty and support for their chosen candidate. Those delegates are set to vote for their presidential nominee in a virtual roll call in early August, before the Democratic National Convention.

If Biden ends his campaign before voting begins, the pledged delegates could cast their ballots for a new candidate. According to the DNC rules, If no candidate won a majority on that first ballot, then the more than 700 “superdelegates” could join in subsequent votes.

The voting would then continue until one candidate won a simple majority of delegates.

If Biden were to die, resign or suffer a “disability” after the convention adjourned on Aug. 22, then the Democratic National Committee chair — currently Jaime Harrison — would confer with top congressional Democrats and the Democratic Governors Association about a replacement, per the party rules.

Harrison would then report to the committee, which “is authorized to fill the vacancy.”

The mounting pressure on Biden to drop out has put a spotlight on Vice President Kamala Harris, who many pundits and experts view as the likeliest choice to replace him.

“The vice president is the logical choice, obviously,” said Meena Bose, director of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency at Hofstra University, in an interview.

Bose noted that Harris, 59, has already been vetted, when she joined Biden’s campaign in 2020. What’s more, the fundraising war chest that the Biden campaign has amassed in the current election cycle would transfer to her if she took over the ticket.

Harris, like Biden, has struggled with low approval ratings throughout the last four years. And Republicans are already deploying attacks against her, accusing her of failing in her job as the administration’s “border czar” — even though she was not given that task.

Other high-profile Democrats, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, have been floated as potentially stronger alternatives to Harris if Biden were no longer in the race. But almost all of those figures have already said they would not run for president in 2024.

There is also a risk that leap-frogging the vice president in favor of another candidate could spark a bitterly contested party convention, something Democrats surely want to avoid — especially after the Republican convention’s display of near-total unity behind Trump this week.

“Time is really tight and it’s difficult to mount a campaign for anyone other than the vice president,” Bose said.

With Harris, it’s “not like you’re just anointing some stranger,” said Christina Bellantoni, the director of USC Annenberg’s Media Center and a former longtime journalist in Washington.

“You could make the argument that she could carry on the legacy, that she is the obvious next choice, all of those things,” she said.