Pollster Nate Silver in his latest election forecast update said that the national polls are now in favor of Kamala Harris as the vice president is leading Trump by three percentage points, 49.1 per cent to 46.1 per cent. “A lot of polling since our last update, and the model mostly liked it for Harris — especially the national polls, which show her lead expanding to an even 3 points,” Silver wrote in the post published.
“Forecast still in toss-up range, but we’re at a point where you’d probably rather have Harris’s hand to play.”
In Kamala’s winnability predicted by Nate’s model, there were exceptions, notably in Arizona, Nate said adding that Arizona is unlikely to be the tipping-point state and a less critical swing state. Plan A for Harris runs through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — and Plan B involves North Carolina, Georgia or both, Nate said.
‘I would vote for Trump if vice president…’
Nate said he is not interested in politics but he finds elections interesting. In a podcast, he revealed that he would vote for Kamala Harris but there is one condition that might make him vote for Trump and Trump has nothing to do with it. Nate said if Kamala Harris announces to ban poker, then Nate would vote for Trump. If Kamala Harris were to say I want to ban poker, I would feel targeted as a poker player, and clearly this is a community that wouldn’t be interested in the votes of people like me, so why would I want to be in their coalition?”
“I don’t think it’s a bad thing if people vote in terms of their narrow self-interest. That’s a part of a political economy that can be healthy,” Nate said adding that Democrats underestimate how many votes they lose because they are annoying.