With Kamala Harris narrowly leading in most of the polls against Donald Trump, Asian diplomats would like to put their bet on the Democrat leader for the upcoming US presidential elections when it comes to the tariff policy of the two.
Analysts forecast that import tariffs under Harris would probably stay lower than those suggested by Trump. However, with her foreign policy towards Asia still largely unclear, businesses managing supply chains in Asean economies may encounter uncertainty, no matter the election result, South China Morning Post reported.
Reiterating similar views, British political and security analyst Christopher Blackburn said, “Harris will probably encourage reshoring and nearshoring while bolstering partnerships with key Asian economies like India, South Korea and Vietnam to ensure smoother supply-chain operations,”
On contrast, Trump has clearly said that countries like India and China are tough to trade referring to high tariffs imposed by the two nations.
“So we’re going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us $2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing,” he had said in an election rally.
Referring to Harris’s China policies, Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior official for Southeast Asia at the Council on foreign relations in the US said as quoted by SCMP, “I think her China policy would broadly replicate that of the Biden administration.”
Meanwhile, according to Trump’s plan, a 60% tariff would be imposed on products from China. Additionally, he suggests implementing a tariff reaching as high as 20% on all other items imported by the United States from around the world.
The Trump administration introduced a tax burden on American citizens by implementing tariffs on a wide array of goods, totaling around $380 billion in value during 2018 and 2019. These tariffs, which amounted to nearly $80 billion in new taxes, represent one of the most significant tax hikes in recent history, according to a study by Tax Foundation.
Despite the change in leadership, the Biden administration has largely maintained the tariffs put in place by its predecessor. In May 2024, the administration further increased tariffs on Chinese products, targeting semiconductors and electric vehicles, among other goods, valued at $18 billion. This move resulted in an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion for American consumers and businesses, the study revealed.