It’s hard to believe it’s only been 95 days since the last Formula One grand prix, but here we are again, with the 2025 F1 season upon us, the Australian Grand Prix set to kick off the action this weekend and with a (hopefully) remarkable season of close racing ahead. (Catch the schedule here.) After a whirlwind of team launches, Lewis Hamilton dominating headlines at Ferrari and three days of preseason testing, it’s time to go racing at the Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne.
Our F1 team are ready to share their predictions for the season ahead. We have our sights set on who might emerge as the championship frontrunner, which teams will make dramatic strides, who could surprise us with breakout performances, and whether the established powerhouses will continue to dominate or face new challengers.
Dive into our analysis and share your own predictions in the comments before the lights go out on Saturday at midnight ET (Sunday 4 a.m. GMT). But first, here are ours.
Constructors’ podium
Luke Smith: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull — I think it’s going to be super close through this season, but it’ll shake out as the same top three as last year. McLaren has the early advantage going into the season, which could help it move into a decent lead. The combination of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri offers race-winning pace and, unlike the other three front-running teams going into 2025, stability between seasons. If it can maintain its development path from the past couple of years, McLaren will be very hard to beat this year.
Madeline Coleman: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull. As Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said during preseason testing, the grid is converging in the final year of the regulations and we do anticipate the grid to be competitive. McLaren and Ferrari have the most potent driver lineups, but the Woking-based crew is expected to have the quicker car from the get-go.
Pat Iversen: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull. This century has seen a few incredible driver combinations in terms of ability and achievement. There’s a good chance we include either Norris and Piastri or Hamilton and Leclerc in that conversation someday. It’s a close call, but I’ll go with McLaren by a nose. The papaya seems to be in full stride, from factory to cockpit, and I think it will take a bit for all the pieces to come together at Maranello.
Michael Bailey: Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull. What is the start of a season if not the place to dream? “You’d be surprised at how quick they’re going to be this weekend,” Lando Norris said about Ferrari ahead of the Australian Grand Prix. McLaren broke its 26-year drought to win last year’s constructors’ championship. It’s been 17 years since Ferrari last took that crown. With Hamilton now alongside Charles Leclerc, why not?
Drivers’ podium
LS: Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, Oscar Piastri. After crossing the line in Abu Dhabi to clinch McLaren the constructors’ title, Norris said on the radio that 2025 was “gonna be my year, too,” and I see him making good on that promise. He’s learned the hard lessons of fighting Verstappen from last year, had the edge on Piastri over a single lap, and can now put everything together to mount a serious title charge from the start of the season.
MC: Norris, Leclerc, Verstappen. It’ll come down to how the teams develop their respective cars and which drivers make the least mistakes. Norris knows how he needs to fight in the championship battle and McLaren seemed to have the edge during preseason testing.
PI: Verstappen, Norris, Leclerc. He’s the most talented driver in the world and I don’t think it’s close. He’s won four titles in a row. He won with a subpar (by Red Bull’s recent standards) car last season. Until he doesn’t win the championship, I’ll keep betting on Verstappen. (He’s also been just cagey enough about Red Bull’s actual pace that I’m suspicious they’ve hoodwinked us all.)
MB: Hamilton, Norris, Verstappen. Yes, I’m still dreaming. I’m not even sure if this is mathematically possible given my constructors’ title prediction, but I’m all in on some romantic 2021 redemption for Hamilton and do feel Norris’ winning experience of 2024 will take him to the brink.
Best of the rest?
LS: Alpine. The fashion in which Alpine turned its season around through the end of last year, highlighted by the double podium in Brazil, should breed plenty of confidence going into this year. The regulation change in 2026 may be the focus and head honcho Flavio Briatore may only care about contending for a title in the coming years, but I think Alpine can keep its upswing going. Pierre Gasly can fully morph into the team leader role this year alongside Jack Doohan. With Aston Martin stumbling last year and there being little in testing to suggest it has righted itself, I’m saying Alpine can land fifth in the standings.
MC: The fight for P5 will be close and I would even go as far as to say that Williams could throw its hat into the fight with the experienced duo of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon. However, Alpine’s performance improved in the latter portion of last season. Although there’s the caveat of preseason testing being smoke and mirrors, Gasly put some competitive laps on the timesheets. The one big caveat is that Doohan will be adjusting during his rookie season, but with so few points positions up for grabs, Alpine could be a consistent contender.
PI: Can I be honest? I don’t love this pick. Aston Martin’s fall-off from the highs of early 2023 has been stark. But I think its floor is higher than Alpine’s to start the season. In a year when many of these teams will save money on development to focus on 2026, maybe Aston Martin has just enough built-in consistency to rise above the rest again.
MB: How much realism have I got in me here? I really do feel like Alpine has the advantage and Gasly is one of the most underrated drivers on the grid. But I’m going to give into my gut again. I’d love it to be Williams (everything else I’ve written here means I probably should say that, too). Sainz, Albon, and an iconic marque heading in the right direction at last.
Surprise pole
LS: I’m playing a bit fast and loose with the definition of ‘surprise’ given Mercedes should be contending toward the front this year, but if no one tells me otherwise, the 18-year-old Kimi Antonelli is my pick, making him F1’s youngest-ever pole-sitter in the process. Scarily, Antonelli has three seasons to try to achieve that feat! Sebastian Vettel was 21 when he scored his first pole, setting the current record.
MC: As Luke noted, the constructor alone isn’t necessarily surprising, but Antonelli is 18 years old (he recently got his driver’s license) and a rookie. Securing pole position is still a big feat considering the caliber of drivers competing against him and the strength of the closest constructors.
Our staff expects a big rookie season from Kimi Antonelli (Sipa USA)
PI: Liam Lawson. A surprise because you’d think a Red Bull pole would belong to Verstappen, but no! I will take no further questions about this incredibly safe pick.
MB: Gasly nailing a pole position for Alpine in drying conditions somewhere. It will happen.
Surprise podium
LS: This feels very much like closing my eyes and putting my finger on a name from the grid, but I’m going to say Esteban Ocon. He’s proved his ability to seize the moment in recent years, be it last year in Brazil or with his famous win in Hungary. Haas still doesn’t have a podium finish to its name in F1. A crazy race somewhere featuring rain and a red flag will play into Ocon’s favor. Perfect fodder for a “Drive to Survive” redemption arc if ever I saw one.
MC: Sainz. Listen, we said surprise, right? The last time a Williams driver stood on the podium was in 2021 when George Russell finished second at Spa. Sainz has the skill; he showed this at Ferrari. The thing we don’t know is where the car stacks given how preseason testing comes with the usual caveat despite his big day two run.
PI: Antonelli. He’ll have at least two by the end of the season.
MB: I see Madeline’s bid and I’ll go further. I think Albon getting his Williams in a top three, for what would be a third career F1 podium, would be an even greater achievement — and potentially driven by his increased in-team competition from Sainz.
Most improved team
LS: Mercedes. Harsh given it won four races last year? Maybe a little. But I think Mercedes will finally right the wrongs of recent years with its car design and enjoy a consistent season of performance instead of a handful of peaks. It’s a bit too late for this rule set and I don’t think it’ll be enough to give thought to a first championship since 2021, but I think the post-Hamilton era will start positively.
Can Carlos Sainz help turn Williams around? (Sipa USA)
MC: Williams. The team was hamstrung last season by the sheer number of wrecks and starting the year with an overweight car. This year’s car, though, was on time and on the weight limit, and during preseason testing, it seemed there was reason for cautious optimism around the team. Williams finished ninth last season, but the duo of Sainz and Albon is its strongest driver lineup in recent years. Combine that with a stronger car, the Grove-based crew could just be in the midfield fight consistently.
PI: Williams. There’s nowhere to go but up for Williams, who finished ninth last season — especially with two solid veteran drivers who (should) keep the car on the track more often.
MB: I would love to change it up, but I also think Williams has a lot to offer this year — from an impressive drivers’ lineup to the potential leap forward in the FW47. Finishing ninth in 2024 leaves a lot to improve this year, too.
Most improved driver
LS: Verstappen’s teammate. Liam Lawson knows he is stepping into the toughest seat in F1 this year, going toe-to-toe with Verstappen. He’s seen how that seat chewed up and spat out Sergio Pérez, Gasly and Albon in the past six years, but I’ve got a good feeling about Lawson. His confidence can go a long way and I think he has broad enough shoulders to be able to deal with the inevitable pressures. Going into the year, his goal should not be to beat Verstappen, but simply to get as close as possible to his level of performance. I think the call to drop Pérez and promote Lawson will age well.
MC: Hamilton. Yes, the seven-time world champion. The final few years of his time at Mercedes drastically contrasted the championship seasons and Hamilton failed to match Russell head-to-head, sometimes due to setup experiments and other times just not clicking with the car. Mercedes simply lacked consistency in the car’s performance, which left questions about what the 40-year-old is capable of.
PI: Gasly. At 29, the Frenchman is now the unquestioned top driver at Alpine and coming off a strong end to the 2024 season. He says the team is in a good place after a few years of turmoil and that’s enough to give me confidence in a driver who I think is a little underrated. I don’t think expecting him to finish better than 10th in the standings this season is a leap.
MB: I should also say Hamilton, as I’ve gone all romantic over his eighth title chances. And that would definitely win this little gong, too. But another shout for Albon here, who picked up just 12 points in a coasting 2024. Up against Sainz and in a much more competitive car (hopefully), Albon could make huge strides forward.
Best young driver
LS: Antonelli. I’m really excited to see what Antonelli can do this year. Getting a quick car as a debutant is a privilege bestowed upon so few drivers and Mercedes has long seen the Italian as being a key part of its future. Yes, there’ll be mistakes as in any rookie season, but I do think Antonelli will stand out from the rookie class of 2025.
MC: Ollie Bearman. He scored points in two of the three grands prix he raced in last season — once in a Ferrari and once in a Haas. He did make several mistakes during the Brazil GP, where he finished P12 out of the 15 drivers who finished the race. However, I feel he will become a steady point-scorer for Haas if they have a competitive car again.
The total number of points at the season’s end isn’t why I made this selection, considering he’ll be in the midfield. But because he’s with Haas, he will be fighting directly with a majority of other rookies. The growth potential is there and consistency in his performance and adaptability are key.
PI: Antonelli. I mean, I did just say he’d grab two podiums, didn’t I? I am keeping an eye on Gabriel Bortoleto. He won the F3 and F2 titles in back-to-back years (just like Russell, Leclerc and Piastri). That counts for something.
MB: For ‘best,’ I want to read ‘most fun.’ Isack Hadjar is going to be emotional, lively, and he might just outstrip a Racing Bulls teammate in Yuki Tsunoda who could feel a little lost following his winter Red Bull snub. There were just two-tenths between the pair in terms of their quickest testing laps in Bahrain and I’m looking forward to seeing how Hadjar fares from here.
Imagine a moment we’ll remember from this season
LS: The first contact between Norris and Piastri. I know McLaren is confident it can manage the situation and the lessons from last year and ‘papaya rules’ will of course be helpful. But when you have two young, hungry drivers both vying for wins, it’s inevitable something will happen at some point. I don’t see it being explosive between the two of them, but I do see a moment when an incident makes McLaren get firmer with its team orders between them. Cue the dramatic “Drive to Survive” music!
MC: Lewis Hamilton’s first win as a Ferrari driver. Two legendary brands are teaming up and the first year of the partnership is coming during a highly anticipated competitive season. Not to mention, the tifosi are such a passionate fanbase. The hype around Hamilton and Ferrari has been building since the news broke in February 2024. The crowd will go wild as he stands atop the podium, an emotional moment that’ll go down in history.
PI: The questions and angst around Hamilton as Leclerc starts out-performing him by mid-season.
MB: It’s hard to predict this without starting to imagine a hypothetical scenario, but it’s going to involve Verstappen and another driver getting wildly upset with his driving, it will epitomise the end of the Dutchman’s title-winning streak, and maybe it will impact where his career heads next.
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