In the wake of Kamala Harris’s loss in the 2024 election, political analysts are scrambling to determine what went wrong for the Democrats. While voter turnout and economic concerns have dominated the discussion, a new analysis suggests that social media—particularly TikTok—played a surprising role in her defeat.
A recent report by Blue Rose Research, led by Democratic data scientist David Shor, found that Harris suffered substantial losses among young and politically disengaged voters, a demographic that had previously leaned Democratic. The study suggests that TikTok, a platform known for shaping political discourse among Gen Z, may have contributed to shifting political attitudes, particularly among young men.
A Shift in Voter Behavior
Harris’s loss was not just about turnout but about conversion—voters switching sides. Many nonwhite moderates and conservatives, who had previously backed Democrats, moved toward the Republican camp. This shift was especially pronounced among younger voters, a traditionally left-leaning group that, in this election, showed an increased preference for conservative policies and candidates.
TikTok, a platform heavily used by young people, played a role in amplifying right-wing messaging. Unlike Twitter and Facebook, where content is driven by engagement and established networks, TikTok’s algorithm has been known to promote populist and counter-mainstream narratives. While the Democratic Party has traditionally relied on social media to mobilize young voters, the virality of conservative content on TikTok may have made it more difficult for Harris’s campaign to control the narrative.
The Changing Political Landscape
Another key factor highlighted in the report was the increasing ideological polarization among nonwhite voters. Historically, minority voters were more likely to lean Democratic regardless of their ideological stance. However, in 2024, nonwhite moderates and conservatives voted more in line with their white counterparts, indicating a broader realignment within the electorate.
This change, coupled with growing discontent over economic issues, cost Harris crucial votes. While the Biden administration had emphasized job growth and economic recovery, many working-class voters—especially those struggling with inflation and cost-of-living concerns—felt that the Democrats were not adequately addressing their needs.
What This Means for the Democratic Party
The findings challenge the conventional wisdom that Harris’s loss was primarily due to low Democratic voter turnout. Instead, the data suggests that many voters actively switched their allegiance, drawn to the Republican Party’s messaging on issues such as inflation, crime, and social values.
For Democrats, this signals a pressing need to rethink their approach to digital engagement. While TikTok was once seen as a tool for progressive activism, its role in this election suggests that it has also become a battleground for conservative messaging. If Democrats hope to regain their hold on younger and disengaged voters, they may need to refine their digital strategy and address the economic anxieties that are driving voters to the right.
As the party looks ahead to future elections, one thing is clear: the influence of social media in shaping political attitudes is more powerful than ever. Whether the Democrats can adapt to this new reality will likely determine their success in the years to come.
How the script flipped in 2024
The 2024 election results defied expectations, challenging long-held assumptions about identity politics. Kamala Harris, expected to perform better among Black, female, Latino, and young voters than Joe Biden did in 2020, instead underperformed in all these demographics. The only groups she outperformed Biden with were affluent voters and white men. A striking takeaway from the election, as sociologist Musa al-Gharbi noted, was that “Democrats lost because everyone except for whites moved in the direction of Donald Trump.”
The failure of these predictions highlights how many people rely on outdated mental models that assume political behavior is driven by group identity. These models, influenced by the liberation movements of the past several decades, frame politics as a struggle between oppressed and privileged groups. This perspective assumes that people vote in alignment with their racial, ethnic, or gender identities. However, the election results reveal a more complex reality—people prioritize issues like inflation, crime, and foreign policy over identity-based solidarity.
The identity politics framework, which has dominated elite institutions and progressive circles, often ignores individual agency and oversimplifies group identities. Categories like “Hispanic voters” lump together vastly different communities, and racial categories fail to account for economic and social diversity. Even traditionally solid identity groups are fluid, as seen in high interracial marriage rates and shifting self-identifications.