Warning that a “profound change of American geopolitics” had put Poland, as well as Ukraine, in an “objectively more difficult situation,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland on Friday said his country must drastically increase the size of its military and even “reach for opportunities related to nuclear weapons.”
Mr. Tusk, in a detailed speech on security to the Polish Parliament, did not explicitly propose developing a nuclear arsenal, but said that “it is time for us to look boldly at our possibilities of having the most modern weapons” and explore options for nuclear and “modern unconventional weapons.”
He added that his government was “talking seriously” with France, Europe’s only nuclear power aside from Britain and Russia, about the possibility of extending the French nuclear umbrella to other European countries. In addition, he said, Poland needs to ensure that all adult men are “trained in the event of war.”
His comments reflect the stark turnabout at the White House with the return of President Trump, who has publicly denigrated the NATO alliance, cast doubt on the U.S. commitment to defend much of Europe in the event of a Russian attack and falsely shifted the blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine onto Kyiv. Mr. Trump’s views were received with deep alarm in Warsaw and other parts of Eastern Europe that have bitter memories of being bullied and repeatedly occupied by Russia over centuries.
Poland is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which prohibits countries that were not among five declared nuclear powers in 1970, when the treaty took effect, from acquiring atomic weapons.
But Israel, India and Pakistan, which never signed onto the ban, and North Korea, which withdrew from the treaty, have all developed nuclear weapons, and there has been sporadic discussion in Poland of trying to join the nuclear club. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Poland’s former governing party, said in 2022 that he would, “as a citizen,” like to see Poland acquire nuclear weapons but added: “As a responsible politician, I must assess this idea as unrealistic.”
Russian officials have suggested repeatedly that they could use nuclear arms in the fight against Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, particularly if the West ramps up its military aid to Ukraine. But repeated escalations in that aid so far have not prompted such a response.
The French Institute of International Relations warned in a report last year that “the war in Ukraine has the potential to increase proliferation risks, as it signals that nuclear powers can attack an adversary with conventional capabilities while backing its actions with nuclear threats to deter third-party intervention.”
“The war also sends the message that nuclear weapons are a necessary guarantor of national security,” the report said.
When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Ukraine held on its territory the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal but relinquished it in 1994, in return for a pledge from Russia, as well as the United States and Britain, to respect Ukrainian borders and refrain from the use or threat of military force. Many Ukrainians now regret giving up this arsenal, as their government has appealed in vain for NATO membership and direct involvement of Western forces in the war.
Poland is the biggest military power among former members of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact military alliance that are now members of NATO. But those nations have long looked to the United States, with its nuclear arsenal and thousands of troops stationed in Poland and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, as the guarantor of its security.
Poland has a long tradition of nuclear expertise, dating to Marie Sklodowska-Curie, the Polish-born French scientist who won Nobel Prizes in physics and chemistry for her pioneering work in discovering radioactivity — a word she coined — and radioactive elements in the early 20th century. Stanislaw Ulam, a Polish mathematician and physicist, played an important role in the Manhattan Project, the United States’ secret atomic bomb program during World War II, and in the subsequent invention of the hydrogen bomb.
Under Communism, Poland trained a large group of nuclear engineers in preparation for a nuclear power plant that it started building with Soviet assistance but never finished. Poland last year approved plans for the construction of its first atomic power station under a contract with America’s Westinghouse Electric.
Mr. Tusk dedicated most of his speech to the new security situation created by Mr. Trump’s abrupt upending of what had been the pillars of American foreign policy since the end of World War II.
“We cannot deny these facts: Today, Poland’s situation, objectively, and Ukraine’s situation, in particular, is more difficult than it was a few months ago, and we must deal with this fact,” he said.
“Washington’s much more symmetrical attitude toward Moscow and Kyiv, much more symmetrical than we had become accustomed to, is a little different — I am also putting it mildly — from what we feel in Poland or in Europe,” he said.
But Mr. Tusk avoided criticism of Mr. Trump and said the “closest possible ties” with the United States remained essential.
At the same time, he said Poland would expand its military to around half a million personnel, including reservists, more than double its current size and raise spending on defense to 5 percent of its economic output.
But Mr. Tusk ruled out sending Polish soldiers to Ukraine “as part of some contingent,” an apparent reference to French proposals that European countries provide troops for a future security force if U.S. efforts to broker a peace deal bear fruit.
Poland is already one of Europe’s biggest spenders on defense, spending around 4 percent of gross domestic product last year, double the 2 percent minimum set by NATO for its member nations. Most NATO countries are above that threshold now, unlike during Mr. Trump’s first term, when he berated them for not spending more, but he continues to question the U.S. obligation to defend its allies.
Poles, Mr. Tusk said, “will not accept the philosophy that we are powerless and helpless, that if President Trump decides to change his policy, we have no chance.”
“I will repeat once again what seems incredible but is true: 500 million Europeans are begging 300 million Americans to protect us from 180 million Russians who have not been able to cope with 40 million Ukrainians for three years,” he said.
Europe has the means to defend itself but needs to “eliminate one important deficit,” he added — “the lack of will to act, uncertainty and, sometimes, even cowardice.”
Marc Santora contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.