The US National Hurricane Center announced on Monday (local time) that tropical storm Rafael, formed near the Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean, is likely to intensify into a hurricane. The system is predicted to gain additional strength before hitting Cuba.
Currently, the storm is situated approximately 335 miles (540 km) to the southeast of Grand Cayman, with sustained wind speeds reaching 45 mph (75 kmh).
The storm will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before likely hitting Cuba, as per AP reports.
The US National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba. A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys.
As of Monday, Rafael was located about 150 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. The storm is forecast to be near Jamaica late Monday (local time), pass over or near the Cayman Islands late Tuesday as a hurricane, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
While most forecasts predict Rafael will peak as a Category 1 hurricane, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert, Michael Lowry, cautions, “but conditions over the next few days will favor strengthening so we’ll need to monitor how quickly it organizes, and a stronger hurricane can’t be ruled out.”
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are preparing for the storm by closing schools and offering sandbags to residents. Heavy rainfall is expected across the western Caribbean, with 3 to 6 inches predicted and up to 9 inches possible in some areas of Jamaica and Cuba. Flooding and mudslides are possible.
According to Cuban officials, approximately 37,000 residents in Guantanamo province remained evacuated on Monday evening due to severe weather conditions.
Being the season’s 17th named storm, Rafael follows the aftermath of Tropical Storm Oscar, which struck Cuba in October, resulting in eight fatalities and causing a nationwide power outage due to the collapse of the electrical infrastructure.
The Jamaica Observer reported a significant landslide on Sunday in a rural region north of Kingston, which authorities attributed to continuous rainfall preceding the anticipated storm. Whilst no casualties were reported, several communities became isolated.
The western Caribbean region is experiencing substantial precipitation, with rainfall measurements expected between 3 to 6 inches (7 to 15 centimetres), potentially reaching 9 inches (23 cm) in localised areas of Jamaica and Cuba. These conditions present risks of floods and mudslides.