The unofficial quarter mark of the 2024 season brings a pair of 4-0 teams traveling wildly different paths, a renewed rivalry between two of the league’s banner franchises, the year’s first London excursion, trade speculation and more.
Our NFL writers Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe discuss some of Week 5’s best storylines and what they’re watching for Sunday.
The Bills are coming off a humbling road loss at Baltimore. The Texans bounced back against the Jaguars last week but had to overcome penalties and also needed C.J. Stroud’s late heroics. What do you make of this matchup between 3-1 teams?
Sando: I’ve liked the Bills more than I’ve liked the Texans this season and tend to favor them here. Buffalo isn’t the first good team to lose big against Baltimore.
Keefer: The Bills certainly aren’t the first contender to get embarrassed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (see: the Lions and 49ers last season). I’m willing to overlook this one. The Texans’ issues are concerning. On top of getting routed in Minnesota in a game Stroud and the offense couldn’t get anything going, last week’s narrow victory over a winless Jaguars team wasn’t all that reassuring. One major problem: offensive penalties. The Texans lead the league with 26 accepted penalties so far — the line false-started three times in a row against the Vikings — and overall, the team has committed 40 penalties in just four games. That’s how teams lose games in this league, no matter how talented the roster. DeMeco Ryans needs to get this cleaned up, and fast.
Howe: We anticipated the Texans taking a step forward this season. Part of that happens by continuing to do what you did well a season ago, and that’s winning close games. So while the Texans don’t have a marquee blowout win on their resume yet, their three victories are by a combined 12 points. They won six of their last seven one-possession games last season, so that’s a plus. It’ll be nice to see how they handle such a big test, too. The Texans got blown out by the Vikings in their only meeting with a team that currently has a winning record, and they weren’t overly tested during the 2023 regular season. If the Texans win, this will be a game they can hold onto as they push into January, knowing they can take down an AFC elite. With the Bills, they probably got a little too far ahead of themselves after that Monday night beatdown of the Jaguars. I’d expect them to return to form against Houston.
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The Chiefs, who meet the Saints on Monday night, are taking everyone’s best shot but still winning. How much does wide receiver Rashee Rice’s injury impact them? What do you make of the defending champion’s season so far?
Sando: Rice was a high-volume, low-air-yards producer, but not really a game-changing force in this offense as constructed. The Chiefs’ depth suffers, but I don’t necessarily see them becoming less productive through this injury alone.
Keefer: I certainly think this makes things harder for an offense that’s still sputtering a bit. The Chiefs may be 4-0, but they’re 4-0 by the skin of their teeth, winning each by one score or less, and scoring fewer points in each successive week. A bit like the Patriots in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady heyday, Kansas City seems to be using the early part of the season to figure things out, especially on offense, confident that it’ll iron out the issues by the time January rolls around. Travis Kelce, when he’s not blanketed by double teams, is still a game-changing weapon, and Xavier Worthy — who so far is the fastest player in the league, per Next Gen Stats, averaging a maximum speed of 15.85 mph — gives them a target who can stress safeties deep. Taking the Saints in this one, though.
Howe: On paper, Rice might be the Chiefs’ most indispensable offensive player without the Mahomes surname. It’s a huge blow. But will it matter? Mahomes and the Chiefs have proved more than capable of turning it on just long enough to handle whatever adversity they encounter, whether it’s self-inflicted or from an opponent. They’re worse on paper without Rice. They’ll need others to play above expectations. Their margin of error has shrunk. We’ve heard it all before, and the Chiefs keep getting through it. Things could get choppy in the short term, though.
The Jets and Vikings meet in London. Where is Sam Darnold on your quarter-mark MVP poll? What is the biggest concern for the Jets right now coming off an ugly home loss to the Broncos?
Sando: I don’t think Darnold is making standout plays to carry his team to victory, so I haven’t seen him as an MVP candidate to this point. But if he somehow stayed on pace for 44-plus touchdown passes and the Vikings kept winning, we’d have to reassess, for sure. As for the Jets, keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy could be the biggest concern. Rodgers took some big hits against Denver and could take more against the Vikings.
Keefer: Darnold’s a nice story but the MVP chatter seems premature. Josh Allen is more deserving, and by the end of the season, it wouldn’t surprise me if Lamar Jackson made a strong case to go back-to-back. He looked that good Sunday night. As for the Jets, I feel like the first month of the season hints at what’s to come: a rocky season where week-to-week consistency is hard to find. The Jets’ two wins are over two of the worst teams in the league — the Titans and Patriots — while their losses were both ugly and concerning; they were routed by the 49ers in Week 1, then couldn’t beat a Broncos team at home in Week 4 that was starting a rookie passer who threw for 60 yards. Now they have a 40-year-old quarterback in Rodgers with a sore knee who’s prepping to play overseas against a blitz-heavy defense. I don’t think it gets any better for the Jets on Sunday.
Howe: Allen and Jackson were the two best quarterbacks in September, so I’d start with them and then filter a tier down for Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and maybe two or three others who have quickly exceeded expectations. With the Jets, I’m curious about their offensive identity. Rodgers has been good against two bad teams and mediocre against two decent-to-good ones. The offensive line wasn’t good enough against the Broncos, either for the pass or run game. And it seems like there’s always some type of distraction, including this week with the cadence story. I feel like a broken record praising Brian Flores’ defense, but the Jets have a lot to overcome to take down the Vikings in London.
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The Colts and Jaguars meet in an AFC South clash. Would you start Joe Flacco this week, even if Anthony Richardson is healthy? Would you fire Doug Pederson if Jacksonville loses again?
Sando: I’d start Richardson if healthy and then reassess over a longer period of time. Regarding Pederson, a strong organization would stay the course through a rough start unless the coach had lost all credibility internally. This has not been a strong organization under owner Shad Khan. He seems to operate more like a fan than a seasoned executive. We need to see how the team competes on the field before saying one more defeat should lead to wholesale changes. I would need to see a non-competitive effort before going down that road.
Keefer: Richardson needs to play. He’s still only eight starts into his NFL career and showed some promise early in Sunday’s win over the Steelers. He was more accurate from the pocket, ridding his game of the early season mistakes that buried the Colts in different spots in September. This season is all about reps for Richardson; as long as he’s healthy, he needs to be on the field, so in January this organization has a better sense if he’s the future or not. As for Jacksonville, moving on from Pederson isn’t the move, even if it loses Sunday to Indianapolis. Remember: The Jags started 8-3 a year ago and were in the running for the AFC’s top seed until Trevor Lawrence got hurt. He’s struggled since, but overreacting wouldn’t serve the young quarterback well. What Pederson might want to do is take over play-calling duties again.
Howe: Richardson and the offense were off to a nice start before he injured his hip. If Shane Steichen believes that group was on the verge of turning the corner, with or without Flacco, it shouldn’t even be up for debate that Richardson should be on the field. But what if Steichen still has doubts, namely that Jonathan Taylor’s early involvement helped the offense? In that case, with Taylor’s ankle injury, Steichen might think it’s necessary to give Flacco a shot to keep the Colts in the playoff mix. That’s when the decision gets much tougher. As for the Jaguars, they’re in a bad way, but firing Pederson right now wouldn’t help Lawrence whatsoever. Priority No. 1, short of a miraculous playoff push, is to get Lawrence into the best place possible for 2025. We’ll see in January if Khan believes Pederson should be part of that equation, but cutting ties beforehand — unless it’s absolutely necessary for locker room purposes — would be overeager.
The Cowboys and Steelers take center stage Sunday night. Dallas is dealing with key defensive injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Justin Fields will start again for a Steelers team coming off a deflating loss. What intrigues you about this matchup?
Sando: I’m intrigued to see how Fields fares against a depleted Dallas defense as Russell Wilson gets healthier. It’s a fun storyline to follow simply because reporting around the Steelers was so strong heading into the season about Wilson being the clear favorite to start.
Keefer: I think Sunday night’s game could swerve the Cowboys’ season in the wrong direction. Beyond their defensive liabilities, Dallas’ offense has had a very uneven four-game start, and now it’ll see one of the league’s most punishing defenses. Pittsburgh ranks first in third-down conversion rate (21.9 percent) and defensive points allowed (8.7 per game). And Brandin Cooks won’t play. A loss would leave the Cowboys at 2-3 heading into games against the Lions and 49ers, the two teams that met for the NFC championship last winter.
Howe: Teams can run on the Cowboys, and the Steelers won’t apologize for running all game and letting Fields be opportunistic through the air. I’m also curious about the Steelers defense. It allowed a league-low 26 points through three games but couldn’t stop Flacco and the Colts despite several chances. If the Colts exposed something, I’m interested to see if the Cowboys will follow suit.
(Photo of Josh Allen: G Fiume / Getty Images)