Greenland is caught in a love triangle between the U.S., Denmark and independence as election takes place

Greenlanders are heading to the polls on Tuesday in a pivotal parliamentary election shaped by the perennial debate over independence from overseer Denmark — and by U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambitions to get hold of the island “one way or the other.”

Four of the Arctic island’s five biggest political parties support independence, and the most recent voter poll in January suggested the pro-independence Inuit Ataqatigiit party could retain power in the 31-seat parliament, the Inatsisartut, and likely followed in second place by its erstwhile coalition partner, Siumut.

Both parties say they want to hold a referendum on political and economic independence from Denmark, although neither has set down a clear timeframe.

Denmark oversees Greenland’s defense and foreign policy but leaves domestic matters to Greenland’s government. Copenhagen provides an annual block grant of roughly $511 million to the island which accounts for approximately 20%of Greenland’s GDP, and more than half of the public budget, according to International Trade Administration data. 

Copenhagen has repeatedly insisted that Greenland is “not for sale” and that it will remain a part of its kingdom, yet it’s wary of the momentum behind independence and has been quiet ahead of the election, wary of appearing to dictate how islanders should vote.

There’s no doubt that Trump’s designs on the island and its abundance of rare earth minerals have caused alarm in Denmark, however. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the idea as “absurd” when Trump first mooted it in 2019.

That sentiment was reiterated by Greenland following Trump’s comments in December, when the U.S. leader said “ownership” of Greenland was essential for America’s economic and national security. Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede responded that “we are not for sale and we will not be for sale” and that “Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland.”

He doubled-down on that position last week, stating “Kalaallit Nunaat [Greenland in the Greenlandic language] is ours.”

“We don’t want to be Americans, nor Danes; We are Kalaallit. The Americans and their leader must understand that. We are not for sale and cannot simply be taken. Our future will be decided by us in Greenland,” he said on Facebook.

Apparently undeterred by Greenland and Denmark’s rejection of his advances, Trump has repeatedly returned to the subject of the U.S.’ claim of ownership. He has also refused to rule out military action to seize the vast, icy territory that is located geographically closer to the U.S. than to Denmark.

Last week, Trump said in his joint address to Congress that the U.S. would assume control of Greenland “one way or the other.” He revived the subject on Sunday, commenting that the “U.S. strongly supports the people of Greenland’s right to determine their own future.”

“We will continue to KEEP YOU SAFE, as we have since World War II. We are ready to INVEST BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to create new jobs and MAKE YOU RICH — And, if you so choose, we welcome you to be a part of the Greatest Nation anywhere in the World, the United States of America,” Trump posted on the Truth Social media platform.

An opinion poll carried out in January by pollster Verian for the newspaper Berlingske, found that 85% of Greenlanders polled did not want their country to leave Denmark and become a part of the U.S., with only 6% saying they supported such a move.

Nonetheless, the same poll found a majority of 56% of Greenlanders would vote for independence if a referendum were held today, with 28% against, and 17% uncertain.

Rasmus Jarlov, a Conservative lawmaker in Denmark and chairman of Denmark’s Defense Committee, commented Monday that the Nordic nation was not too worried that Greenlanders would embrace the U.S., whatever the outcome of Tuesday’s vote.

“Not a single candidate in Greenland’s election wants to join the USA. So that will never be the result of the election. It can not be swayed in that direction,” Jarlov commented on social media platform X.

“A thorough poll one month ago showed that only 6% af Greenlanders want to join the USA while 85% reject the idea. The claim that Greenland wants to join the U.S. is completely made up. They absolutely do not.“

Jarlov insisted that Greenland has “full rights in Denmark” and representation in the parliament, whereas he claimed that, “in the USA, Greenland would be an overseas territory without voting rights or any influence. Puerto Rico with 3.2 million people has never become a state and nor will Greenland with 57,000 people.”

Analysts say Trump is going about his courtship of Greenland in the wrong way, and should instead look to deepen economic and geopolitical ties with the island rather than pursue the high-cost exercise of “owning” it.

“One thing is abundantly clear: the people of Greenland have little interest in being acquired by anyone,” Otto Svendsen, associate fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in recent analysis.

“Nor does the Danish government in Copenhagen have any appetite for negotiating about a sale of Greenland, since it would likely violate international law and Greenland’s right to self-determination,” he added.

Svendson argued that instead of pursuing “a likely futile effort to acquire Greenland against its will,” the U.S. would be better served by staying the course and finding cost-efficient ways to strengthen ties with the territory.

This, he said, included redoubling “its commitment to forums and mechanisms that promote government-to-government ties with Greenland,” as well as its small aid packages to develop Greenland’s mining sector, along with its education and tourism.

By deploying this engagement strategy, the U.S. can “reap significant benefits while passing the hefty bill of running the island on to Denmark,” he noted, with the status quo therefore allowing Washington to “have its cake and eat it too.”